Key Takeaways
- The 30-year fixed rose to 6.49% this week (Freddie Mac, Jun 25) -- up 2 bps from last week as sticky inflation keeps upward pressure on rates
- CPI hit 4.2% annually in May 2026 -- highest since April 2023, driven by energy (+23.5% YoY) and persistent core goods pressure (BLS, Jun 10)
- The 10-year Treasury settled at 4.39% Thursday after spiking toward 4.50% mid-week -- spread to 30-yr fixed remains elevated at ~210 bps (WSJ, Jun 25)
- The Fed held rates at 3.50%--3.75% in June -- Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan now forecast no cuts until mid-2027
- Existing home sales rose 3.2% in May to a 4.17M annualized rate -- demand is absorbing rising inventory (NAR, Jun 9)
- Non-QM now holds 10% of total originations -- bank statement loans comprise 33.7% of all Non-QM volume, fastest-growing segment in the market (Polygon Research, Apr 2026)
- MBA mortgage applications up +1.0% week-over-week ending June 19 -- buyers adjusting to the rate environment and transacting
This Week's Numbers
| Metric | This Week | Last Week | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Yr Fixed (Conventional) | 6.49% | 6.47% | Freddie Mac, Jun 25 |
| 30-Yr Fixed (FHA) | 6.33% | ~6.33% | Bankrate, Jun 25 |
| 30-Yr Fixed (VA) | 6.29% | ~6.29% | Bankrate, Jun 25 |
| 30-Yr Jumbo | 6.65% | ~6.65% | Bankrate, Jun 25 |
| 10-Yr Treasury Yield | 4.39% | 4.50% | WSJ / Trading Economics, Jun 25 |
| CPI (Annual, May 2026) | 4.2% | 3.8% (Apr) | BLS, Jun 10 |
| Existing Home Sales (May) | 4.17M SAAR | 4.04M (Apr) | NAR, Jun 9 |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.50%--3.75% | Held | Federal Reserve, Jun 17 |
| MBA Mortgage Applications | +1.0% WoW | -- | MBA, Week ending Jun 19 |
What Moved the Market This Week
Inflation is the story -- and it is not going away quietly. May CPI came in at 4.2% annually, the hottest reading since April 2023, driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices year-over-year and persistent pressure across core goods. The bond market responded: the 10-year Treasury spiked toward 4.50% mid-week before pulling back to 4.39% by Thursday. The spread between the 10-year Treasury and 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains elevated at approximately 210 basis points, well above the historical norm of 170 bps. Until that spread compresses, rate relief will be limited even if Treasury yields soften.
The Fed is on hold -- and the market is adjusting its expectations. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%--3.75% in June, as expected. What shifted the market was the updated outlook: Goldman Sachs has pushed its first rate cut forecast to June 2027, and J.P. Morgan is aligned, forecasting the Fed remaining on hold through 2026. The implication for mortgage brokers is clear -- a "rates come down and we refi everyone" strategy is not a 2026 plan. Brokers who are winning right now are qualifying borrowers for the rate environment that exists, not the one they are waiting for.
Inventory ticked up -- but demand is absorbing it. NAR reported a 3.2% increase in existing home sales in May to a 4.17M seasonally adjusted annual rate. Active listings are up 1.8% and new listings up 2.1%, giving buyers marginally more options. But demand is keeping pace: pending sales rose to 75,856 vs. 72,039 the same period last year, even with rates near 6.5%. Buyers are adjusting. Brokers who bring the right product to the right borrower are closing deals right now.
Non-QM is 10% of the market -- and bank statement is the engine. Polygon Research confirms Non-QM has crossed 10% of total originations as of April 2026. Bank statement loans hold a 33.7% share -- the single largest income documentation type in Non-QM. Self-employed workers, 1099 earners, and business owners represent the fastest-growing borrower demographic in the country. Brokers with Non-QM depth are not chasing a niche -- they are working the most active segment of the purchase market.
3 JET Products Built for This Runway
First Class | Non-QM -- Best Pricing for the Cleanest Profiles
In a high-rate environment, pricing is everything. JET's First Class program is built for the borrower who brings the strongest profile -- and it shows in the rate. Full Doc, Bank Statement, 1099, WVOE, and Asset Depletion all qualify under one program. The cleanest files get the best pricing in the market -- and First Class is where JET puts that principle to work.
- Full Doc, Bank Statement, 1099, WVOE & Asset Depletion -- all in one program
- Loans up to $3.5M | Min FICO 660 | Max LTV 90% on purchase
- Max DTI 55% | Primary, 2nd Home & Investment eligible
- Interest-only available | 48-hour average underwrite
Business Class | Bank Statement -- Priced #1 Nationally
With bank statement loans now 33.7% of all Non-QM volume, the volume is there -- the question is who prices it best. JET's Business Class is currently priced #1 in the national wholesale market on bank statement product. No tax returns. No W-2s. Just 12 or 24 months of deposits and the deal pencils at the best rate available.
- 12 or 24-month bank statements | No tax returns, no W-2s, no employer verification
- Loans up to $3.5M | Min FICO 660 | Max LTV 90% on purchase
- Max DTI 50% at 80% LTV or below | Primary, 2nd Home & Investment
- Interest-only available | 48-hour average underwrite
Skyline DSCR -- Qualify on Cash Flow, Not Paperwork
With inventory rising and investors re-entering the market, real estate investors need clean execution at the best price. Skyline DSCR qualifies entirely on property cash flow -- no personal income documentation required. As more investors look to add doors in a stabilizing rate environment, Skyline gives brokers a product that closes on the asset, not the borrower's Schedule C.
- Qualifies on property cash flow only -- no W-2, no tax returns, no personal income
- Min FICO 700 | 1.0 DSCR | Loans up to $3M
- Short-term rental eligible | 48-hour average underwrite
Ready to Run a Scenario?
Submit a scenario at jetmortgage.com/ScenarioDesk or call 949-652-7818. Our team averages a 48-hour underwrite turnaround.
Sources
- Freddie Mac PMMS -- 30-Year Fixed Rate Average, June 25, 2026: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
- Bankrate -- Current Mortgage Rates, June 25, 2026: https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/30-year-mortgage-rates/
- WSJ / Trading Economics -- 10-Year Treasury Yield, June 25, 2026: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/bond/BX/TMUBMUSD10Y
- Bureau of Labor Statistics -- Consumer Price Index, May 2026, released June 10, 2026: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
- Federal Reserve -- FOMC Rate Decision, June 17, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov
- Goldman Sachs Research -- "Why the Fed Is Unlikely to Cut Rates This Year": https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-the-fed-is-unlikely-to-cut-rates-this-year
- J.P. Morgan Global Research -- Fed Rate Cut Outlook: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/fed-rate-cuts
- National Association of Realtors -- Existing-Home Sales, May 2026, released June 9, 2026: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-3-2-increase-in-may
- HousingWire -- "Why housing demand is up and inventory is down in 2026," June 13, 2026: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/housing-demand-inventory-2026
- Polygon Research / National Mortgage Professional -- Non-QM Market Share Data, April 2026: https://www.polygonresearch.com/non-qm-market
- Mortgage Bankers Association -- Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, week ending June 19, 2026: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/06
JET Mortgage is a DBA of Home Mortgage Alliance Corporation (HMAC) | NMLS #1165808 | Equal Housing Lender. Rates shown are market averages for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Not a commitment to lend.