Mortgage Rates Hold at 6.66% as Bond Yields Retreat From 2007 Highs Ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut
Rate Runway Report | Week of August 28, 2026
Key Takeaways
- The 30-year FRM held at 6.66%, up just 1 basis point from last week's 6.65% (Freddie Mac PMMS)
- The 15-year FRM rose to 5.98%, up 3 bps from 5.95% (Freddie Mac PMMS)
- The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.34% on Aug. 19 -- its highest since 2007 -- before retreating to 5.20% by Aug. 27 (U.S. Treasury)
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday at 10:00 AM ET -- the marquee event for rate direction
- MBA mortgage applications fell 1.0% for the week ending Aug. 21, with refis down 2% (MBA Weekly Survey)
- Existing home sales slipped 1.7% in July to a 4.05M annual pace; median price $431,400 (NAR)
- New home sales plunged 10.5% in July to a 607,000 annual pace (Census Bureau)
This Week's Numbers
| Metric | This Week | Last Week | Year Ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year FRM | 6.66% | 6.65% | 6.56% |
| 15-Year FRM | 5.98% | 5.95% | 5.69% |
| 10-Year Treasury | 4.67% | 4.69%* | 4.26% |
| 30-Year Treasury | 5.20% | 5.19%* | -- |
| Mortgage Spread (30yr FRM - 10yr T) | 1.99% | -- | -- |
| MBA Apps Index | -1.0% wk/wk | -0.4% | -- |
| Refi Share | 42.0% | 41.9% | -- |
| Existing Home Sales (July) | 4.05M | 4.12M | -- |
| New Home Sales (July) | 607K | 648K | -- |
| Median Existing Price (July) | $431,400 | -- | -- |
| Median New Home Price (July) | $393,800 | $403,100 | -- |
*Aug. 20 close
Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS, U.S. Treasury, MBA, NAR, Census Bureau
What Moved the Market This Week
The bond market's rollercoaster. The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.337% on Aug. 19 -- its highest level since 2007 -- before retreating roughly 14 basis points to close at 5.20% on Aug. 27. The 10-year followed a similar path, dropping from 4.74% on Aug. 21 to 4.67% by Aug. 27. The pullback offered a brief reprieve, but yields remain elevated by historical standards.
Mortgage rates barely budged. Despite the bond market volatility, the 30-year FRM moved just 1 basis point to 6.66%. Freddie Mac's chief economist noted that the housing market continues to benefit from growing inventory, giving buyers more options even as rates fluctuate. The mortgage spread over the 10-year Treasury sits at 199 bps -- slightly above the historical average of ~170 bps, suggesting mortgage rates have room to compress if Treasury yields continue falling.
Warsh's Jackson Hole debut. The Kansas City Fed's annual symposium runs Aug. 27-29 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote as chair on Friday, Aug. 28 at 10:00 AM ET. Markets are on edge: Warsh has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in recent meetings and has signaled he is "not constrained by market prices" -- a hawkish posture that could reprice rate expectations. Bond market anxiety is high, with investors looking for any signal on the timing of future cuts.
Housing data softens. Existing home sales fell 1.7% in July to a 4.05 million annual pace (NAR), with inventory at a 4.6-month supply. New home sales fared worse, plunging 10.5% to a 607,000 annual pace (Census Bureau) -- the sharpest monthly decline in months. The median new home price fell to $393,800, down 2.3% from June. The data underscores the persistent drag of elevated rates on transaction volume, even as inventory improvements give buyers more choices.
MBA applications drift lower. Mortgage applications decreased 1.0% for the week ending Aug. 21, following a 0.4% decline the prior week. The Refinance Index dropped 2% and is 17% below year-ago levels. Refinance share held at 42.0% of total applications. Purchase activity remains subdued as buyers wait for a clearer signal on rate direction -- which makes Friday's Jackson Hole speech all the more consequential.
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Sources
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), Aug. 27, 2026 -- https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
- U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rates, Aug. 27, 2026 -- https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), DGS10 & DGS30 series -- https://fred.stlouisfed.org
- MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, week ending Aug. 21, 2026 -- https://www.mba.org
- National Association of Realtors (NAR), Existing-Home Sales, July 2026 -- https://www.nar.realtor
- U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Sales, July 2026 -- https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs
- Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole Symposium 2026 -- https://www.kansascityfed.org
JET Mortgage is a division of Home Mortgage Alliance Corporation (HMAC), NMLS #1165808. All loan products subject to credit approval and underwriting guidelines. For use by licensed mortgage professionals only. Rates as of Aug. 27, 2026 and subject to change without notice.