Rate Runway Report -- Week of April 20-24, 2026

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed rates fell to 6.23% (Freddie Mac PMMS, April 23) -- the lowest level in three consecutive spring homebuying seasons, down 7 bps from last week and 14 bps in two weeks
• Mortgage applications surged 7.9% week-over-week -- purchase apps jumped 10% and refis gained 6%, with purchases up 14% year-over-year
• Pending home sales rose 1.5% in March despite elevated rates, as pent-up demand defied headwinds
• Existing home sales dropped 3.6% in March to 3.98M SAAR -- a 9-month low -- but inventory climbed 2.3% year-over-year, giving surviving buyers more options
• Iran ceasefire extension and Fed independence fears kept the 10-year Treasury range-bound near 4.30-4.34%, preventing further rate improvement despite positive momentum

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This Week's Numbers

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What Moved the Market This Week

Two Straight Weeks of Rate Relief -- But It's Fragile

For the second consecutive week, mortgage rates moved in favor of borrowers. Freddie Mac's PMMS printed at 6.23% on April 23 -- seven basis points below last week and 23 basis points below the recent high of 6.46% from early April. Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater called it the lowest rate in three spring homebuying seasons, and noted the improvement is already showing up in application volume and pending sales momentum.

That said, the path lower is not a straight line. The 10-year Treasury remained stubbornly range-bound between 4.30% and 4.34% this week. Two forces kept a ceiling on further improvement: President Trump's extension of the Iran ceasefire with no defined timeline -- keeping geopolitical uncertainty in the market -- and renewed concerns about Fed independence after Trump signaled there was "no rush" on Middle East de-escalation and continued to apply pressure on Chair Powell.

Applications Surge -- The Pipeline Is Moving

The MBA's weekly survey for the period ending April 17 showed total mortgage application volume up 7.9% from the prior week. The breakdown tells the real story: purchase applications jumped 10% week-over-week and are up 14% year-over-year. Refinance volume gained 6%. MBA President Bob Broeksmit credited lower rates driven in part by Middle East ceasefire developments, while flagging that a resilient labor market and rising inventory are supporting sustained buyer demand. Brokers sitting on pre-approved pipelines should be moving conversations to action right now.

Existing Sales Lag, But Pending Sales Signal Recovery

March existing home sales came in at 3.98M SAAR -- down 3.6% from February and the weakest March reading in years. The culprit was the rate spike through March, which froze buyers before the recent relief took hold. But the forward-looking data tells a more optimistic story: pending home sales rose 1.5% in March, beating expectations, with NAR citing pent-up demand absorbing inventory despite high rates. The South region led gains, continuing to outperform other markets.

Homebuilders Feeling the Pressure

Q1 2026 earnings from major homebuilders confirmed what the data was signaling. Taylor Morrison reported revenue down 26.8% and closings down 26% quarter-over-quarter. Meritage Homes saw sales fall 18.1% year-over-year with margins compressing as incentive spending increased. Both builders cited softer demand and affordability constraints as primary drivers -- a direct consequence of the rate environment that prevailed through Q1. The silver lining: incentive-heavy builder inventory creates opportunities for broker-referred buyers who can qualify on existing product at reduced prices.

What Brokers Should Know Going Into Next Week

The rate direction is favorable. Two consecutive weeks of improvement, purchase apps up 14% year-over-year, and pending sales showing resilience. The uncertainty is geopolitical -- any escalation in the Middle East or a Fed flashpoint with the administration could reverse bond market gains quickly. Lock strategies matter more than ever. Clients who are pre-approved and sitting on the fence should be getting calls this weekend.

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3 JET Products Built for This Runway

Bank Statement -- Self-Employed Borrowers Ready to Move

Purchase applications are up 14% year-over-year and rate relief is bringing hesitant borrowers back to the table. A significant portion of motivated buyers are self-employed -- exactly who gets left behind by conventional underwriting. Jet's Bank Statement program qualifies on 12 or 24 months of deposits, with no tax returns, no W-2s, and no employer verification. In a market where speed wins deals, our 48-hour average underwrite is the competitive edge your self-employed clients need.

Jet Prime+ DSCR -- Investors Capitalizing on Inventory Growth

Inventory is up 2.3% year-over-year and homebuilder incentives are expanding -- motivated sellers and discounted new construction are creating real entry points for real estate investors. Jet Prime+ DSCR qualifies on the property's rental income, not personal income docs. No tax returns, no employment history. If your investor clients have been waiting for the right moment to add to their portfolios, the combination of more inventory and lower rates is the clearest opening in over a year.

Down Payment Assistance -- First-Time Buyers Are Back in the Market

With purchase applications up 10% in a single week, first-time buyers are responding to rate relief in real time. But the affordability gap remains -- median down payments hit 9% for first-time buyers in 2025, the highest since 1997. Jet's DPA program options pair with FHA and Conventional loans to bridge that gap, with forgivable and repayable grant structures available. With 2,619 active DPA programs nationwide and 33% of borrowers asking about down payment options, brokers who lead with DPA are closing files others are losing.

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Ready to Run a Scenario?

Call Jet Mortgage at 949-652-7818 or visit the Quick Pricer at https://jetmortgage.com/quick-pricer/

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Sources

1. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) -- "The 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Declines Further," April 23, 2026. https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/30-year-fixed-rate-mortgage-declines-further

2. Scotsman Guide -- "Modest mortgage rate relief continues despite ongoing geopolitical tensions," Luke Baynes, April 23, 2026. https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/modest-mortgage-rate-relief-continues-despite-ongoing-geopolitical-tensions/

3. Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) -- "Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey," April 22, 2026. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/04/22/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

4. National Association of Realtors (NAR) -- "NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 3.6% Decrease in March," April 2026. https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-3-6-decrease-in-march

5. National Association of Realtors (NAR) -- "NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 1.5% Increase in March," April 21, 2026. https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-1-5-increase-in-march

6. HousingWire -- "Weekly pending home sales show yearly growth as mortgage rates fall," April 2026. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/weekly-pending-home-sales-show-yearly-growth-as-mortgage-rates-fall/

7. HousingWire -- "Taylor Morrison pares incentives and leans into buyer choice," April 24, 2026. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/taylor-morrison-q1-2026-bto/

8. Trading Economics / U.S. Treasury -- 10-Year Treasury Yield, April 24, 2026. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield

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